{"id":457560,"date":"2023-10-19T06:55:25","date_gmt":"2023-10-19T06:55:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mapfream.com\/inversores-pendientes-petroleo-israel-palestina\/"},"modified":"2023-10-19T07:05:38","modified_gmt":"2023-10-19T07:05:38","slug":"israel-palestine-conflict-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mapfream.com\/en\/israel-palestine-conflict-oil\/","title":{"rendered":"The Israel-Palestine conflict boosts investor appetite for oil"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=\"1\" _builder_version=\"4.20.4\" _module_preset=\"default\" background_image=\"https:\/\/www.mapfream.com\/media\/dolares.jpg\" background_position=\"center_left\" height=\"100px\" custom_margin=\"0px||20px||false|false\" custom_padding=\"0px||0px||true|false\" custom_css_main_element=\"min-height: 343px;||display: flex;||align-items: flex-end;\" locked=\"off\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][et_pb_row column_structure=\"3_5,2_5\" _builder_version=\"4.20.4\" _module_preset=\"default\" custom_margin=\"0px||0px||true|false\" custom_padding=\"0px||0px||true|false\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][et_pb_column type=\"3_5\" _builder_version=\"4.16\" _module_preset=\"default\" background_color=\"#ffffff\" custom_padding=\"35px||0px||false|false\" box_shadow_style=\"preset1\" box_shadow_horizontal=\"-240px\" box_shadow_vertical=\"0px\" box_shadow_blur=\"0px\" box_shadow_color=\"#ffffff\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][et_pb_post_title meta=\"off\" featured_image=\"off\" admin_label=\"T\u00edtulo de publicaci\u00f3n\" _builder_version=\"4.20.4\" _module_preset=\"default\" title_font_size=\"38px\" title_line_height=\"1.3em\" width=\"80%\" module_alignment=\"left\" custom_margin=\"||15px||false|false\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][\/et_pb_post_title][et_pb_post_title title=\"off\" author=\"off\" categories=\"off\" comments=\"off\" featured_image=\"off\" admin_label=\"Fecha de publicaci\u00f3n\" _builder_version=\"4.16\" _module_preset=\"default\" title_font=\"||||||||\" meta_font=\"|||on|||||\" meta_font_size=\"12px\" custom_margin=\"||0px||false|false\" locked=\"off\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][\/et_pb_post_title][et_pb_post_title title=\"off\" author=\"off\" date=\"off\" comments=\"off\" featured_image=\"off\" admin_label=\"Categor\u00edas de publicaci\u00f3n\" _builder_version=\"4.16\" _module_preset=\"default\" meta_text_color=\"#9a9a9a\" meta_font_size=\"16px\" locked=\"off\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][\/et_pb_post_title][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=\"2_5\" _builder_version=\"4.16\" _module_preset=\"default\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=\"1\" _builder_version=\"4.16\" custom_padding=\"0px||0px||true|false\" locked=\"off\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][et_pb_row column_structure=\"1_4,3_4\" _builder_version=\"4.16\" _module_preset=\"default\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][et_pb_column type=\"1_4\" _builder_version=\"4.16\" _module_preset=\"default\" global_colors_info=\"{}\"][et_pb_blurb title=\"Redacci\u00f3n Mapfre\" image=\"https:\/\/www.mapfream.com\/media\/2021\/01\/redaccion-mapfre.jpeg\" alt=\"Redacci\u00f3n Mapfre\" icon_placement=\"left\" admin_label=\"Redacci\u00f3n Mapfre\" module_class=\"staff_blurb_image\" _builder_version=\"4.16\" header_font=\"|600|||||||\" header_text_color=\"#2d373d\" header_font_size=\"17px\" body_text_color=\"#526570\" body_font_size=\"14px\" body_line_height=\"1.5em\" max_width_tablet=\"\" max_width_phone=\"\" max_width_last_edited=\"on|tablet\" hover_transition_delay=\"100ms\" hover_transition_speed_curve=\"linear\" custom_css_blurb_content=\"color:\" border_radii_image=\"on|50px|50px|50px|50px\" locked=\"off\" global_colors_info=\"{}\" header_text_color__hover_enabled=\"off|desktop\" custom_css_blurb_title__hover_enabled=\"on|hover\" custom_css_blurb_content__hover_enabled=\"on|hover\" custom_css_blurb_content__hover=\"color: #d81e04;\"]<\/p>\n

\"Twitter@Mapfre<\/a><\/p>\n

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Investors reacted to the initial tensions between Israel and Palestine in the same way as in other conflicts - betting on safe-haven assets such as gold, the US dollar or Treasury bonds, to the detriment of riskier equities.<\/p>\n

\"What surprised us is that this movement was quite fast<\/strong>. The following day, the stock exchange was already above previous levels and bonds were recovering,\" explains Javier de Berenguer, investment manager and fund selector at MAPFRE Gesti\u00f3n Patrimonial (MGP).<\/p>\n

The only assets that are quoting at the same or higher levels than the day the conflict broke out are gold and oil<\/strong>, and it\u2019s precisely in the latter that De Berenguer perceives the greatest risk.<\/p>\n

Since October 7, the day of the Hamas attack on Israel, Brent crude oil (a benchmark in Europe) has gone from trading at around $85 to $91, while WTI (a benchmark in the United States) has been around $87, compared to $83 in the days before the attack.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat's where we see the danger, given the possibility that oil-exporting countries like Iran or others may take a more direct stance and move to limit supply,\u201d he points out. However, De Berenguer specifies that this escalation doesn\u2019t fall within MAPFRE Asset Management\u2019s baseline scenario<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

In the fixed income market, which has surged in recent days, MGP doesn\u2019t believe that there is much more room for bond yields to continue rising<\/strong>, although there are factors that could support this, such as inflation or the imbalance between supply and demand.<\/p>\n

This week sees the third-quarter earnings season kick off, which De Berenguer says will still reflect consumer-driven resistance. \u201cThe market is now focusing its attention on 2024 guidance and on the earnings outlook for next year,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

China grew 1.3% in the third quarter<\/strong><\/p>\n

China surprised investors this week by announcing growth of 1.3% for the third quarter, giving a cumulative rate of 5.2% for the first nine months of the year. De Berenguer noted that this data \u201cis good news for the market<\/strong>,\u201d and especially for Europe. \u201cChina has completely changed its growth model - with the debt it has amassed, it\u2019s not possible to grow as it did before,\u201d he explains.<\/p>\n

The objective of the Chinese Government is to reduce household and corporate debt levels, and De Berenguer doesn\u2019t rule out the country reaching its 5% growth target this year. \u201cMore than anything, China wants to avoid going through what Spain did in 2008,\u201d said De Berenguer.<\/p>\n

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The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to condition oil prices, unlike other types of assets, which returned to normal a few days later. Intervention by other powers in the area is one of the main dangers, although this possibility is not in MGP's base scenario.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":457558,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-457560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets-research"],"yoast_head":"\nMapfre AM<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to condition oil prices, unlike other types of assets, which returned to normal a few days later. 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