Equities continue to rise despite the geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela

Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran are taking center stage at the start of 2026, although equity markets continue to rise and remain at record highs. “The fundamentals and the monetary support tend to carry more weight than geopolitics in this context. Investors have learned to minimize panic,” emphasizes Alberto Matellán, General Manager of La Financière Responsable (LFR).

Where we can see more variations is in the price of oil. For the General Manager of LFR, it will depend on what happens from now on: if tensions worsen and that causes problems in the crude oil supply, the price will rise sharply, but if they remain as they are and do not escalate, we will see more stability.

“An example of the first case could be Israel's attack on Iran, after which crude oil rose by 12%, but the tension quickly ceased. We are seeing that a lot in the current context. On the contrary, if these tensions persist over time and the Strait of Hormuz is closed, we could indeed see more sustained increases over time,” he comments.

Likewise, the situation in Iran and Venezuela, along with other factors such as inflation, has caused metal prices to soar for metals like gold, which usually acts as a safe-haven asset in these contexts and in recent days surpassed $4,600 per ounce.

The criminal investigation against a Fed president, Jerome Powell, is also making headlines at the beginning of the year. “In the end, this mainly affects independence,” says LFR's General Manager.

Regarding the forecasts for this year, Matellán adds that in 2025 the market performance was “better than expected” and that everything points to "rather positive" business results. However, he does not rule out negative surprises for some investors in financial and technological securities. “These are sectors that have risen so much that expectations are extremely high, so there could be disappointments when the 2025 results are released,” he concludes.