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As 2025 draws to a close, the question on investors' minds is quite clear: will 2026 be able to prolong the positive market trend after two consecutive years of very high returns?

Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran are dominating the start of 2026, although equity markets continue to rise and remain at historic highs.

Global equities closed 2025 with a 19.5% gain in dollar terms, and the outlook for next year remains optimistic.

With the year drawing to a close, it's time for analysts and investors to take stock of the past year and look ahead to the coming year. 2025 has been an excellent year for stock markets across the globe, and especially for equities, with indices achieving record highs. What factors have driven these positive results? Will this positive trend continue in 2026, or is it time for a pause after these gains?

November was a volatile month for financial markets, as they dealt with the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, concerns about the valuations reached in companies linked to Artificial Intelligence, and sudden changes in the expectation of a further interest rate cut by the Fed. Returns were flat or slightly positive in equity markets.

No investor would deny that 2025 has been a “lively” year. Tariffs, interest-rate cuts, and questions about a potential artificial-intelligence “bubble” have dominated headlines in recent months. Even so, 2025 will also be remembered as a year of transition and adjustment.

High stock market valuations and the concentration of gains, especially in the technology sector, dominate much of the analysis, although MAPFRE's experts point to another crucial factor: central bank policy. With the Fed facing another rate cut and a likely change in its chairmanship, and a European Central Bank that could take the opposite path if economic growth exceeds expectations, monetary policy could be decisive in the currency, bond, and equity markets.

The Japanese stock market has made a strong comeback and is once again on investors’ radar after years of being overlooked due to a weak economy and a deflationary backdrop.

The British government is facing a difficult decision. It is being forced to face a large fiscal deficit, while its economy shows signs of high inflation and weak growth. This is the backdrop for the presentation of its upcoming budget, which will have to involve some "unpopular measures" if it wants to control the deficit, explains Alberto Matellán, General Manager at La Financière Responsable, who sees similarities with other European countries, such as France.