We're maintaining a cautious stance because the situation is far from optimal

The earnings season is showing healthy fundamentals in companies. For now, neither companies nor the macro environment are reflecting the impact of the war. So acknowledges Ismael Garcia Puente, Deputy Director of Investment Strategy at Mapfre AM.

 “We're maintaining a cautious stance because the situation is far from optimal,” explains Ismael. In his opinion, the strong rebound shown by equity markets in April “is very striking,” given that none of the issues that led to the previous declines have been resolved. Neither the Strait of Hormuz, nor the damaged infrastructures. “From a fundamental point of view, it does not seem that this optimism is based on a better environment, but rather it is due to sentiment and a lot of liquidity in the market.”

The meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will not bring interest rate hikes. Even so, they are the two central banks that are in the most difficult position because they are the most dependent on energy prices. “It is likely that we will see a more hawkish bias from the ECB than from the BoE in raising interest rates. I think what Lagarde has to say will be more important and more distinctive,” he anticipates.

 Consequences of the United Arab Emirates' departure from OPEC: The news was surprising, but the market reaction “was nil,” says García Puente. It did not translate into major shifts, which is one more confirmation that we are moving from a highly globalized world to a world in which we have to trust more in our country and not in external partners.

Regarding the evolution of macroeconomic indicators, the more lagging ones are still not showing the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, as they are based on first-quarter data. Leading indicators such as consumer confidence are indeed reflecting the impact on consumers and are surprising on the upside in the US and on the downside in Europe.