The best strategy for an investor now is one of wait-and-see

Despite the conflict in the Middle East, it is time to maintain the long-term investment strategy, holding on to the levels and horizons set before hostilities began in February. This is the opinion of Ismael García Puente, Deputy Director of Investment Strategy at Mapfre AM, which he gave in an interview with Radio Intereconomía.

“Any big change right now can leave you out of the game. That is why we are committed to maintaining the current levels and horizons we’ve had, with slight tactical adjustments. These changes have been implemented over the past few weeks, and we are now in a situation of uncertainty. Therefore, the most advisable approach is to adopt a wait-and-see strategy,” he explains.

Central banks are also positioned along similar lines. In next week's meetings, Ismael García Puente anticipates a wait-and-see position. “It is an opportunity to assess how central banks see it, but we do not expect there to be many changes. They meetings will serve to gauge the appetite more than to see changes,” he predicts.

The price of Brent will oscillate around $100 in the medium term. In a way, this is a level that the market has established as a floor, and it will likely only move lower in response to more positive news. Oil prices are not expected to return to previous levels; instead, they are likely to settle within a range of $80 to $120 per barrel, depending on how events unfold. There will be a risk premium as long as it is not resolved.

First-quarter results will soon be released, starting with Bankinter. In the banking sector, expectations point to a confirmation of positive operating trends, but without major surprises. The quarter is marked by seasonal factors, with a slight decline in margins, although both are expected to grow year on year. Deposit volumes are also proving solid, credit demand remains strong, and the Spanish economy continues to grow. As a result, there are no visible factors that could trigger an increase in non-performing loans.

“As for oil-affected sectors such as airlines, companies are reporting that many customers are rushing to purchase summer tickets in advance in case the situation worsens and prices rise further. Lufthansa has canceled around 20,000 flights through October, while Volotea is increasing prices. Airlines are taking measures, and this is having an impact on share prices. ”.