Japan is becoming increasingly attractive to investors, thanks to its productive investment, exchange rate, monetary policy and inflation trend, which makes it stand out from other Asian markets, such as China, where investors have received the growth data negatively.
The market's expectations for lower interest rates are "excessively" optimistic, according to MAPFRE Gestión Patrimonial in its monthly report for January, where it explains that these expectations are not justified from the point of view of inflation and growth.
The first week of the year has been accompanied by caution in the markets after the bullish rally at the end of 2023, with falls in both fixed income and equities, but investors have reasons for optimism, given the expectation of a drop in rates.
Following a particularly complicated 2022 for all asset classes, marked by inflation, monetary tightening and economic weakening, this year will end very strongly on the markets, and everything suggests that this optimism will carry over into 2024.
The mantra of 'higher for longer' that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have insisted on repeating in their communications over the last year seems to have been short-lived for the market.
Argentina is entering a new stage that could mean a 180-degree turn in the country's economic policy, following the victory of Javier Milei, presidential candidate of the La Libertad Avanza party.
Small-cap companies are currently trading 14% below their value, which means that in a slowdown environment such as the one that is expected, they can "shine". Jonathan Boyar, advisor to MAPFRE AM's Forgotten Value Fund, elaborates in this article.
The rapid rise in rates over the last year and a half has not yet fully impacted the economy. Alberto Matellán, chief economist at MAPFRE Inversión, explains that these monetary policy changes are usually delayed by between nine months and a year.
After the successive shocks of the pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine, the global economy seems to be in the prelude to a change of cycle. Gonzalo de Cadenas Santiago, Director of Macroeconomic and Financial Analysis at MAPFRE Economics, highlights the main unknowns for this new period.