2025 stock market review: what is behind the surprising upside?

With the year drawing to a close, it's time for analysts and investors to take stock of the past year and look ahead to the coming year. 2025 has been an excellent year for stock markets across the globe, and especially for equities, with indices achieving record highs. What factors have driven these positive results? Will this positive trend continue in 2026, or is it time for a pause after these gains?

On Wednesday, Alberto Matellán, CEO at La Financière Responsable, MAPFRE's ESG investment subsidiary, named the three factors that, in his opinion, have most influenced the stock market's upward performance:

• The economic and market outlook at the beginning of the year was "quite poor," mainly due to the uncertainty generated by the US president and trade disputes. The expected trend was negative, although the reality was that neither the economy nor corporate earnings have borne out the dire forecasts. On the contrary, corporate accounts have proven particularly robust.
• Assets previously considered safe havens, such as bonds, particularly those from the United States, have lost their appeal. This distrust, now somewhat mitigated, has not disappeared and has been one of the factors driving up equities and other assets like gold.
• The “immense liquidity” currently available globally, largely of monetary origin due to central bank stimulus, has also contributed to the rise in stock valuations.

European equities have outperformed their US counterparts this year, even with an economy marked by weakness. If, as predicted, 2026 sees some level of economic recovery, coupled with the three aforementioned drivers remaining in place, “it could be a very good year” for European stocks, according to Alberto Matellán.

The focus on Wall Street is on technology companies, which have driven US indices to new highs and generated significant gains. According to Matellán, after this boom in the sector, we are now entering a period of "refinement," where it will become clear which companies will be leaders in artificial intelligence and which will not.

This context is reminiscent of other periods of new technology development, with the difference, Matellán explains, that this time the "Magnificent Seven" have "much more solid" balance sheets than in previous instances, making them "interesting" portfolio additions. However, after experiencing meteoric rises, their gains could be moderated and fail to remain in the lead in 2026, meaning the new year will be a time of "interesting opportunities" beyond the tech giants.

As for commodities, 2025 has been very mixed, with gold rising by around 60%, while oil has fallen by 20%, its worst year since 2018. The La Financière Responsable executive explained that the prices of both assets move for very different reasons: gold is a safe haven, primarily against inflation, but also against other risks. These threats will remain active in 2026 and Matellán believes that the price of gold will remain at its current high levels.

Oil, on the other hand, may fluctuate in the short term due to technical factors, but in the medium and long term, it is defined by supply and demand. In 2025, the declines can be justified by a larger-than-expected supply and stagnant demand, although based on its current levels, there will be “more stability” in 2026, Matellán stated.

As advice for the new year, the expert offered three tips for individual investors: take a long-term view, review your objectives and ensure your strategy is aligned with them, and have a trusted financial advisor.