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Countdown to July 9: What impact will it have on the markets?

Jul 3, 2025

Redacción Mapfre

The countdown to July 9 has begun, which is the deadline set by US President Donald Trump to finalize trade agreements. The Republican leader has already stated that he doesn’t expect any further extensions. This means that countries that haven’t secured a deal by then will have to face the tariffs imposed by the US government.

"We're about to find out how much the situation has changed since March and April. In any case, we don’t expect the impact on the markets to be particularly negative,” says Alberto Matellán, General Manager of La Financière Responsable (LFR).

Matellán adds that the situation will eventually stabilize, although one thing is clear: Trump’s style of policymaking and negotiation is becoming “increasingly less credible.”

This deadline comes just days after the Senate approved the “Big Beautiful Bill” (BBB), Trump’s ambitious tax reform and spending bill, which has not pass the House of Representatives. Matellán warns that there could be a risk of stagflation if the bill is enacted, though he believes that there are more pressing issues at hand, like controlling the deficit.

Employment data for the country will also be released in the coming days. All signs point to a slight slowdown in job creation, but both this indicator and unemployment rates “will remain positive.” “It mirrors the economy as a whole: we expect figures to be somewhat weaker than before, but nothing drastic,” Matellán explains. Despite this slowdown, he emphasizes that there aren’t enough macroeconomic reasons to justify further interest rate cuts.

Earnings season

Earnings season kicks off next week in the United States, and LFR’s General Manager believes the outlook for the finance sector isn’t bad.

“The sector’s performance largely depends on the yield curve and growth. While growth is indeed slowing, which isn’t ideal for banks, it's likely already priced in. It’s not an unfavorable environment, because the actual situation is somewhat better than the market consensus suggests."

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