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MAPFRE Gestión Patrimonial practical guide to protecting portfolios

Apr 9, 2025

Redacción Mapfre

The date dubbed “Liberation Day” by US President Donald Trump was marked on many investors' calendars, as it would signal the end of uncertainty regarding tariff policies.

The tariffs announced were higher than expected, with a minimum tariff of 10% on all U.S. imports and reciprocal tariffs on more than 50 countries that Trump said had “abused the United States for decades.” However, the 90-day truce offered by Trump to all but China turned the situation around again. The MAPFRE Gestión Patrimonial team explains the keys to weathering the storm and protecting portfolios:

What's happening in the markets? Increased volatility in the face of tariff uncertainty

The market's reaction to the tariff announcements was immediate. On the one hand, in the first days after the announcement, US stock markets registered their worst falls since the pandemic, dragging with them the main global indices, which also closed with high falls. As the days have gone by, volatility has also moved to fixed income assets, which has caused the US Administration to announce a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries that have not announced retaliatory measures against the US. This announcement has caused a strong rebound in the market, confirming the current volatility and uncertainty in the markets.

What can this mean for economies? Cooling economies, rising inflation and affecting corporate profits

From a macroeconomic point of view, if this tariff dispute is prolonged, it could have implications that affect the four fundamental pillars of economies: growth, inflation, liquidity and corporate profits.

How can we deal with it? Diversification, active management and respect for the time horizon

In such a volatile and uncertain scenario, it is essential to remain calm and avoid impulsive decisions. Instead of reacting in the short term, it is best to reinforce the importance of the time horizon and the diversification offered by well-constructed investment portfolios designed to withstand situations such as this. In addition, at times like these, active management becomes more relevant as it enjoys greater flexibility to avoid the most detrimental assets and detect new investment opportunities, as well as the accompaniment of quality financial advice.

Markets showing signs of doubt before year end but are still at record levels

November was a volatile month for financial markets, as they dealt with the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, concerns about the valuations reached in companies linked to Artificial Intelligence, and sudden changes in the expectation of a further interest rate cut by the Fed. Returns were flat or slightly positive in equity markets.

Lessons from 2025 That Will Guide Our Investment Decisions in 2026

No investor would deny that 2025 has been a “lively” year. Tariffs, interest-rate cuts, and questions about a potential artificial-intelligence “bubble” have dominated headlines in recent months. Even so, 2025 will also be remembered as a year of transition and adjustment.

Central banks will be decisive in shaping market trends in 2026

High stock market valuations and the concentration of gains, especially in the technology sector, dominate much of the analysis, although MAPFRE's experts point to another crucial factor: central bank policy. With the Fed facing another rate cut and a likely change in its chairmanship, and a European Central Bank that could take the opposite path if economic growth exceeds expectations, monetary policy could be decisive in the currency, bond, and equity markets.