“The combination of inflation and a fall in confidence in the US is worrying; it can curb investment”

The General Manager of La Financière Responsable, Alberto Matellán, sees signs of alarm in the US economy, which go beyond the tariff war and have been demonstrated in recent events such as the rise in the price of US bonds or the downgrading of its rating by Moody's. Specifically, he points to higher inflation and a decrease in consumer and business confidence, a combination that curbs investment.

Growth expectations are falling in the US, mainly due to the drop in foreign trade, but this is “of little concern” because the market has already anticipated it, said Alberto Matellán on Wednesday. However, the rising inflation expectation while confidence indicators fall “is of more concern,” because they are factors that can paralyze investment. “It's a difficult time,” says the economist, although he argues that to a large extent this negative trend “is already in price” and “the worst has already happened” in terms of the stock market reaction to the US tariff policy.

And although investors have not completely lost their fear of this hardline stance on trade policy, they have “adapted to the new reality,” because the consensus is beginning to see it as a “negotiation tool” used by Donald Trump and one that he likely won’t push to the extreme “There may be tensions, but the brutal disruption that was feared at first will be slower,” says Matellán, who insists that there is still a lot of information to be specified.

In Spain, the IBEX 35 is at its highest levels since 2008, following a surge of around 20% so far this year. For Matellán, there may still be room for growth, and the outlook is positive. Spanish companies continue to deliver strong results, especially considering the complex international context. But, from the point of view of portfolio construction, after an increase of this magnitude, “it is time to adopt more defensive positions and think about preserving profits.”

Europe in general is benefiting from the appeal it represents against the uncertainties of the US, but it shows weak growth, which is supported by foreign trade and not by consumption. This slowdown in consumer spending may negatively impact companies more closely tied to the sector, and declines have already been seen in Inditex, fashion firms on the Paris stock exchange, and sportswear companies in London. However, Alberto Matellán downplays this trend, as it will largely be offset by the global preference for European equities.

The United Kingdom has reached its highest inflation level in a year, rising to 3.5%. For Matellán, this is partly explained by the fact that the country has been operating more economically isolated since Brexit, which drives inflation. But beyond that, “inflation remains a problem everywhere,” with rising expectations globally, though somewhat lower in Europe. This is not only due to tariff disputes but also to deeper causes such as changes in trade flows and the massive monetary injections of recent years, which have not yet fully reached the end consumer.