"We must not forget about inflation; it is a latent risk"

Although the markets seem to have relegated inflation to the background, its persistence in certain economies and the geopolitical factors that could reactivate it make it a risk that should not be overlooked. This is the warning of Alberto Matellán, General Manager of La Financière Responsable, who emphasizes that "less and less attention is being paid to it, but it is a latent risk."

In Spain, inflation has recently surged to 3%, although this increase is largely explained by the strength of economic growth. This fact, far from being alarming, reflects a dynamic economy, but it also requires constant surveillance by monetary policy makers.

Thus, MAPFRE shares the vision of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding a possible global economic slowdown in 2026, driven by trade disputes between major powers. However, Matellán emphasizes that Spain and other regions are taking advantage of the abundant liquidity existing in the system, which could cushion the effects of a slowdown.

Matellán also points out that inflation shows significant divergences between countries, being especially concerning in the United States, which could influence the central banks' approach. For now, no significant changes are expected in investment portfolios, but the environment demands prudence.

At the political level, the postponement of pension reform in France has generated debate. Although it is not positive from an economic point of view, Matellán believes it can be beneficial if it facilitates a political consensus. "Lecornu and Macron have bought time and prioritized political stability, but without this there can be no economic solution," he states.

In the international arena, negotiations between the U.S. and China continue as the expiration of the trade truce approaches. Matellán believes the outcome will not be extreme, since both sides have an interest in avoiding a breakdown. The market, for its part, has learned to interpret the ups and downs as part of Trump’s negotiating strategy and has paid less attention to the conflict.

In Europe, the luxury sector has shown a strong rebound after the results of LVMH. Matellán emphasizes that the growth is due to the increase in sales volume, rather than the price, which is a positive sign. However, Matellán cools this optimism by observing that other companies in the sector, especially in Asia, still face uncertainties.

Finally, in the technology sector, Matellán invites us to look beyond the so-called "Magnificent 7." Companies like ASML, which shows solid results, represent a robust industry that is less volatile. At La Financière Responsable, we bet on these types of companies, whose business models are more stable.