The experts’ take on the financial markets in 2022: Will this year’s streak continue?

Nov 10, 2021

Redacción Mapfre

Redacción Mapfre

The key indexes are showing returns of more than 20%. What can we expect in 2022? And, in the specific case of the Ibex 35, which has lost 10 points compared to Europe in 2021, will its performance improve? According to 8 out of 10 analysts and managers, next year will be good, but not as good as this one. The opinion on the forecast for Spain is more divided: 57% of those surveyed believe Spain can outperform Europe next year, but that depends on inflation, supply chains and the direction of monetary policy. These are the results of an elEconomista survey of 21 investment firms on the market performance they anticipate for next year, in which José Luis Jiménez, the Group’s Chief Investment Officer, participated on behalf of MAPFRE. His opinions can be found below:

 

  • Will 2022 be better or worse for the stock market than 2021? At first glance, it’s hard to imagine the stock market improving after the major rebound that followed the pandemic. Neither the macroeconomic situation–with rising inflation and the possible upcoming change in the monetary policy cycle–nor the political situation justify a very positive scenario.
  • Can Spain do better than Europe in 2022?That seems unlikely in view of the budget forecasts for next year. Deficit and debt figures are likely to continue growing due to lower revenues, and risks of expenditure slippages have also started to emerge. In addition, there are other internal and external uncertainties, such as the energy situation and the global transportation and semiconductor crisis, which could threaten recovery. On the other hand, Italy's significant improvement, with the government of Mario Draghi and its recovery plan, places us in a relatively worse position. We cannot rule out the possibility of the Italian bond having lower returns than ours again.

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