The IBEX: a golden opportunity in 2022
The year 2021 will end the uncertainty in the markets about the Omicron variant and its possible effects on next year's forecasts. Central banks are meeting these days with a view to announcing possible changes in monetary policy. In this regard, Alberto Matellán, chief economist at MAPFRE Inversión, expects the Fed to “speak more aggressively” than it has been until now because, in addition, it has already acknowledged that “inflation is less transitory than it seemed.” On the contrary, the ECB's tone is expected to be less intense, although the expert expects that “they will confirm the end of the emergency purchase plan” by March.
The fear of the new wave of contagions has not overshadowed inflation, which remains an issue of concern for analysts and investors. Indeed, the Spanish CPI, at 5.5% year-on-year, has recorded the highest increase in almost thirty years. When will prices stop rising? This chief economist estimates that it will ease off throughout 2022. Even so, he points to energy as the factor that is driving the current rise: “The green transition is still expensive and as it gets colder, there are higher demand peaks and more expensive energies.”
Despite all this, the main stock market indexes will close the fiscal year above initial forecasts. Looking ahead to next year, Alberto Matellán believes that we will see a more restrained year. “We are coming from a year with a lot of risk appetite and with fixed income markets that will end bearish, but this suggests that 2022 will be a less atypical year,” the expert argues. Along these lines, he believes that the Spanish market “has room for optimism” over the next twelve months, supported by the large weight of banks in the IBEX and the large exposure of companies in Latam, a region that, despite being one of the most affected by the pandemic, can turn the situation around. “They are bringing monetary policies forward, they have been able to adapt to the appreciation of the dollar and there is more room for growth,” he adds.
With two weeks to go before the end of the year, professional managers are already reviewing all possible scenarios for their portfolios. For this reason, the chief economist reminds retail investors that they should not be let themselves be overwhelmed by the current risks and recommends that they focus more on reorganizing their own personal objectives.