At this time of year, the corporate earnings season begins around the world. Listed companies take stock of how the first half of the year has gone, so it will be a good time to see the effect of the economic environment, which in this period has been marked by trade tensions and US tariffs, and all the collateral effects derived from them.
At the end of the second quarter of this year, it is safe to say that the financial markets have once again been operating with apparent normality.
The US administration has once again postponed the truce for the tariffs that expired on Wednesday, thus prolonging a situation of global concern that has not only consequences on the stock markets, but also on the real economy.
The countdown to July 9 has begun, which is the deadline set by US President Donald Trump to finalize trade agreements.
Despite an international context marked by geopolitical conflicts, which have worsened this week with the escalation between Israel and Iran, financial markets have maintained a positive trend in recent months.
The United States Federal Reserve (the Fed) once again kept the benchmark interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range for the fourth consecutive time.
The conflict between Israel and Iran has rekindled geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and financial markets are already beginning to anticipate the possible consequences. One area of concern is the potential impact on oil prices, which play a key role in inflation and, therefore, in the monetary policy decisions taken by central banks.
The short-term dynamics and fading impact of Mr. Trump’s announcements have restored some of the market optimism that was lost in April. Equity market volatility remains below its historical average, but uncertainty persists.
The ECB announced its eighth rate cut this week. Looking ahead, the scope for action is beginning to be limited.