The conflict between Israel and Iran has rekindled geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and financial markets are already beginning to anticipate the possible consequences. One area of concern is the potential impact on oil prices, which play a key role in inflation and, therefore, in the monetary policy decisions taken by central banks.
The short-term dynamics and fading impact of Mr. Trump’s announcements have restored some of the market optimism that was lost in April. Equity market volatility remains below its historical average, but uncertainty persists.
The ECB announced its eighth rate cut this week. Looking ahead, the scope for action is beginning to be limited.
This week, composite PMI data was released for the Eurozone, offering an indicator of companies' outlook and confidence, raising concerns as the figures point to a slowdown in private sector activity. This publication “shows some weakness,” but is not a cause for concern as it is consistent with the general economic context, according to Alberto Matellán, General Manager of La Financière Responsable, an ESG investment subsidiary of MAPFRE.
Alberto Matellán, General Manager of La Financière Responsable, explains that the market consensus now treats tariffs as part of the usual “tug of war” in negotiations, and generally expects that the worst-case scenarios will not materialize. In contrast, U.S. debt and its sustainability have become “one of the most significant concerns” for investors, serving as “a clearer indicator” of investor sentiment.
Uncertainty still clouds the horizon as the Eurozone heads into the second half of the year, showing only tentative signs of recovery.
The General Manager of La Financière Responsable, Alberto Matellán, sees signs of alarm in the US economy, which go beyond the tariff war and have been demonstrated in recent events such as the rise in the price of US bonds or the downgrading of its rating by Moody's. Specifically, he points to higher inflation and a decrease in consumer and business confidence, a combination that curbs investment.
The Spanish stock market is shining brightly once again. On Friday, May 16, the IBEX 35 broke through the psychological threshold of 14,000 points, a level not seen since 2008.
In the investment landscape, there is a wide range of products whose main objective is to preserve capital.