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Small-cap stocks can shine in a recession

Nov 23, 2023

Redacción Mapfre

Jonathan Boyar, director of Boyar Value Group and advisor to the MAPFRE AM US Forgotten Value Fund From a valuation standpoint, small-cap value shares are far and away the cheapest U.S. stocks. While large-cap growth shares (led by the Magnificent Seven group of tech stocks) are trading 36% above their 20-year average price/earnings multiple, JP Morgan reports that small-cap value is selling 14% below its 20-year average. The Russell 2000, a basket of smaller-cap companies, has been in a bear market since peaking in late 2021. It has since trailed the Russell 1000, which indexes larger-cap stocks, by about 20 full percentage points.

Many factors could help explain the short-term underperformance of small-cap shares, including rising interest rates, History suggests that leadership of the stock market could soon pass from large-caps to small-caps—especially if an economic slowdown lies ahead.

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Records, risks, and reasons for caution (and optimism) in the markets

In the third quarter, U.S. equities extended their post liberation day advance, especially in the case of small caps.

How to invest with the stock market at maximums?

We are facing a high price scenario, in which questions for investors arise: Should one enter a market that is already “expensive,” or wait? Should you hold your investments, or is it time to sell? MAPFRE experts explain that being in a moment when stock markets are at record highs should not deter investment if we have a long-term outlook—the most suitable for retail investors—and good diversification.

Fed Highlights “High Prices” in Equities: Are We Facing a Bubble?

The U.S. Federal Reserve has dominated much of the economic and financial discussion in recent weeks, largely due to the debate over possible rate cuts, which were confirmed last week. On Tuesday, Chair Jerome Powell again drew attention by referring in a speech to the “fairly high” prices in U.S. equities. With Wall Street at historic highs, the question arises whether we are dealing with an equity bubble.