"We have to be prepared for the fact that this may not be the perfect year"
At the height of the summer season, investors appear to be dragging their heels. Alberto Matellán, Chief Economist at MAPFRE Inversión, believes that a change of sentiment is brewing: "Growth expectations rose sharply in the United States in the first half of the year, and it's normal for the curve to level out slightly in H2." With this in mind, Matellán sent out a message of calm, stating that in summer "movements are not dramatic and nothing out of the ordinary." Moreover, with the pandemic still ongoing, he warned that we must be prepared for the fact that "this may not be the perfect year." "Reality is kicking in, and it's possible that we may not fully recover to pre-pandemic levels just yet."
In anticipation of the Chair of the Federal Reserve's imminent appearance before the US Congress, Matellán does not expect the Fed to change its position with respect to inflation targets. "The decision cannot hinge on one single piece of data. Rather, the question is whether or not the growth in price level will be temporary, and that does seem to be the case."
Likewise, the latest CPI figure for the UK (2.5 percent) could set alarm bells ringing and trigger a surge in prices across the European continent. However, Matellán believes that the central banks will try to react as little as possible. The expert noted that investors are more attentive to the behavior of the population, which is in part influenced by the policies of central bankers.
On the business side, and more specifically on Wall Street, positive results are expected, which also bodes well for the future. Similarly positive figures are expected in Europe, though Matellán outlined a differential factor that sets it apart: "It is a region with high export levels, and it will be interesting to see the impact of the pandemic's evolution and external demand from Asia."
With the arrival of the summer holiday season, the MAPFRE expert recommended that private investors forget the markets, advising that, provided they have done their homework, "investors shouldn't encounter any unpleasant surprises in the market." In that regard, and having previously emphasized the importance of training and extensive reading, Matellán this time underscored the importance of character building in order to make decisions in the face of uncertainty.